Oregon vs. Wisconsin,
01/01/2020 17:00 EDT,
Score: 28 - 27
Point Spread: +3/-111 Oregon
Rose Bowl - Rose Bowl - Pasadena, CA
I was surprised to see this line float into the FG range with Wisconsin, as according to my projections the underdog Oregon Ducks were the slightly superior side and matchup well against a team like Wisconsin that uses their running attack as a key to controlling time of possession . I know many pundits have not given the Ducks D, the kudos they deserve this season, because of perception . The Ducks are perceived as just an explosive offensive team, but the real truth is that they are balanced and have shown themselves resilient defensively holding 6 teams to season low offensive yards output.Key here today will be pressure on Whiskeys QB- look for Pac-12 Defensive Freshman of the Year Kayvon Thibodeaux (team-high 14.0 tackles for loss, 9.0 sacks) to pace an Oregon defense ranked No. 11 in the country with 41 sacks.
QUOTE: "Between Oregon and Ohio State, they both have amazing athletes on the field that get after the quarterback and make big plays," Badgers quarterback Jack Coan told reporters. "They're an amazing defense." END QUOTE:
OREGON is 19-8 ATS L/27 in road games vs. excellent ball control teams, 32 or more possession minutes/game. OREGON is 45-14 ATS after allowing 3 points or less in the first half last game and is 32-9 ATS after leading their last 2 games by 14+ points at the half.
It must also be noted that Mario Cristobal’s Ducks are a bankroll expanding 8-0 ATS as underdogs versus the Big 10 opposition, and 11-2 SU and 12-1 ATS as dogs with rest.
CFB Bowl pups with 17 or more returning starters from last year returning if they won 8 or less games, and are coming off an ATS win of 3-plus points, are 15-1 ATS since 1990. (Oregon fits this description)
CFB teams where the line is +3 to -3 (WISCONSIN) - after allowing 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game against opponent after outgaining opp by 125 or more total yards in their previous game are 32-74 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 70% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on Oregon to cover