Milwaukee vs. Chi Cubs, 09/01/2019 14:20 EDT, Score: 4 - 0

Money Line: -171 Chi Cubs

Sportsbook: SportsBetting

Result: Loss

7* Chi Cubs (2:20 ET): The Cubs lost to the Brewers on Saturday, snapping a five-game win streak over their NL Central rival. I expect them to bounce back Sunday. Milwaukee is a team that always confounds me, year after year. While still very much alive in the Wild Card hunt, they probably shouldn't be given they've been outscored by 43 runs this season. They're 69-66 overall and for the sake of comparison, the Cubs are 73-62 w/ a +74 run differential (division's best). Perhaps a more apt comparison for the Brew Crew would be the Mets, who have the same record, but also a +20 run differential.

Then we get to the subject of homefield advantage, which absolutely matters when examining these two clubs. The Cubs struggle mightily on the road, but are 45-23 at Wrigley. Only three teams - the Dodgers, Astros and Yankees - have more home victories this season. Meanwhile, Milwaukee is just 30-37 on the road. Yesterday afternoon marked just their second win in eight tries at the Friendly Confines in 2019. The bottom line is that these teams shouldn't be so close in the standings. The Cubs are decidedly better, especially here at home.

Then there's Sunday's starting pitching matchup, which is also decidedly in favor of the home team. Yu Darvish gets to toe the rubber in the series finale, bringing in a 3.10 ERA and 0.836 WHIP from his L3 starts. He was outstanding his last time out in going eight innings and allowing only one run. He's faced Milwaukee only one time this year and it was here last month that he held them to one run in 5 IP. Getting the start opposite Darvish will be Gio Gonzalez, who got rocked his last time out, giving up nine runs to St. Louis. It was also the 3rd straight start where Gonzalez walked at least four batters. Today will be the Cubs' 4th time facing him this season. Consider this will be Gonzalez's 14th start of the year and only 1 of the previous 13 were quality. 7* Chi Cubs

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