Afternoon POWER-BOMB (on FS-1) ~ *RED HOT* 69-45 L114 MLB!
Milwaukee vs. Pittsburgh,
06/01/2019 16:05 EDT,
Score: 12 - 10
Money Line: -168 Milwaukee
7* Milwaukee (4:05 ET): Those pesky Pirates managed to beat the Brewers last night by a score of 9-4. That was fine by me (as I had the Over), but my view of the Bucs still has not changed. This is a bad baseball team masquerading as a .500 club. They have the NL's third worst run differential (at -64). so the fact they have a 28-28 WL record is highly misleading. As I've written about previously, Pittsburgh has the largest gap between actual & expected win totals (+7) in all of MLB. I'm 2 for 2 in this series already (had Milwaukee Thursday) and look to make it 3 for 3 here as it's back to the Brew Crew on Saturday.
In the analysis for yday's game, I said to be wary of Jhoulys Chacin, who was starting for Milwaukee. He came into the game w/ a 1.625 WHIP his L3 starts and had poor career marks vs. the Pirates. Sure enough, he'd given up seven runs before the third innings was even complete. But I have no hesitation backing today's starter Brandon Woodruff, who checks in w/ a 7-1 record in 11 starts (9-2 TSR) to go along w/ a 3.22 ERA and 1.088 WHIP. Woodruff has been insane his L6 starts, allowing two or fewer runs every time out. He's allowed just six runs total in his last 38 IP. All six starts have resulted in Milwaukee victories.
Eventually, Josh Bell will be unable to continue carrying this Pirates' lineup. Bell finished May w/ 94 total bases, the most by any player in that month since the great Willie Mays all the way back in 1958. Perhaps having to face Woodruff, who allowed just one hit in his last start (went eight innings) will be the start of Bell's inevitable regression at the plate. Also, Milwaukee has a huge pitching advantage in this game w/ Nick Kingman set to go for Pittsburgh. Kingman hasn't won as a starter since last July and has an 8.53 ERA in the role this season (three starts). The odds tell you "all you need to know" for this matchup (compare them to yday) and I love the idea of fading the Bucs off a win. 7* Milwaukee