Portland vs. Denver, 05/01/2019 21:00 EDT, Score: 97 - 90

Total: -110/+220 Under

Sportsbook: Bodog

Result: Win

8* Under Blazers/Nuggets (9:05 ET): It was a misfire w/ the Under in Game 1, but I'll come back w/ it here for Game 2. Because Game 1 did go Over, we're getting a few extra points here Wednesday night, some nice added value. As I pointed out in my Game 1 analysis, all four regular season meetings between these teams did go Over. But now it's time for an Under as I don't see either team matching its field goal percentage from Game 1. The Under is also still 13-4 in Denver's last 17 home games.

The Trail Blazers actually had a better overall FG% in Game 1 (51.9 to 50.6) and Damian Lillard led all players in scoring w/ 39 pts. But points off turnovers played a key role in the Nuggets prevailing 121-113 as four-point chalk. They scored 23 points off 18 Portland TO's while the Blazers were only able to manage six points off 12 Denver TO's. While Portland should have done better in that department, a combined 24 pts off turnovers is still a lot and I don't expect this game to be nearly as sloppy. For Portland, it may have been a case of "rust" as they had a five-day break in between series while Denver was just 48 hrs removed from a Game 7 victory over San Antonio.

Something else I stated in the Game 1 analysis is how the Nuggets play a lot better defense at home. You'll recall I had the Under in home victories over the Spurs in both Games 5 and 7 of the last series. They allowed just 90 and 86 in those two games. Now they did allow 113 to Portland here in Game 1, which is well above their season average of 103.1 PPG allowed at the Pepsi Center. It was even above the 110.1 PPG average they allow on the road. So I do expect better defense from Denver tonight. I also expect MUCH better defense from Portland, who held Oklahoma City under 100 pts three different times in Round 1. 8* Under Blazers/Nuggets

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