10* St. Mary's (7:20 ET): If you recall past Tournament runs (of mine), then you know defensive efficiency is a metric I lean on heavily this time of year. It can be particularly useful when the underdog has a higher DE rating. Such is the case here w/ St. Mary's taking on Villanova. Make no mistake about, this Villanova team is nowhere close to LY's juggernaut that ended up cutting the nets down. That team ranked 11th nationally in DE. This year, the Wildcats ranked 73rd, which (in my eyes) makes them susceptible to suffering a 1st round upset. I'll take the points here.

You have to wonder whether or not St. Mary's would be in the NCAA Tournament had it not been for an upset of Gonzaga in the WCC Tournament Final. But the Gaels did win that game and thus are here as an 11-seed. They are no defensive juggernaut (55th in efficiency), but they have a higher rating than 'Nova and are also comparable on the offensive end (21st vs. 16th). I just don't see the gap between the teams that the oddsmakers seem to. St. Mary's has won a NCAA Tournament game each of the last three years. They play at a very slow pace and also crash the glass at a solid rate. If they can beat the Zags, well, they are capable of beating anyone on any given night.

Villanova entered LY's Tournament as the betting favorite. That is certainly not the case this year. While they did win both the Big East regular season title and tournament, the league was down. The Wildcats also won the last two games by just four (Xavier) and two (Seton Hall) points. Also, despite a high number of attempts from behind the three-point line, the Wildcats aren't converting at their usual rate in 2018-19. I've had this team earmarked as having the potential for suffering an outright loss in the 1st round for some time. I'm not wavering from that. 10* St. Mary's

8* Abeline Christian (7:10 ET): Little is known about 15-seed Abilene Christian. But Kentucky HC John Calipari seems at least a little scared, at least when it comes to those particular Wildcats' three-point shooting. And for good reason. Abilene Christian is connecting at a somewhat ridiculous 38.6% from behind the three-point line this year. Granted, the level of competition in the Southland is nothing close to what the Wildcats will see here. But given their proficiency from behind the arc and how many points they're getting, I think the underdog is a strong call here. No one will give them a chance. I think they'll outperform expectations rather easily.

So here's the deal on Abilene Christian. They were NOT regular season champs in the Southland (finished 2nd), but did unseat New Orleans in the Tournament Final, 77-60, and were 4.5-point favorites in that game. This is their 1st ever NCAA Tournament berth, but it's an experienced group w/ three seniors and one junior among the starting five. Admittedly, it's not a team w/ a lot of height and depth took a hit when two reserves were dismissed earlier in the year. But this team's level of three-point shooting can keep them in any game.

Kentucky was really strong down the stretch and should have beaten Tennessee in the SEC Tournament. But they faltered late and lost that game. As per usual, UK has a young roster. They've got plenty of talent, but I can see the players looking past this game and onto the next round. They've only covered 1 of their last 6 games. Also, Coach Cal's team will not be able to trade threes w/ Abilene Christian. Only 23.6% of UK's points come from behind the arc. That's bottom 20 in the country. The three-point shot alone should be able to keep the underdog within the generous spread here. 8* Abeline Christian

8* Vermont (2:00 ET): I'm seen "some" go so far as to label Florida State a "Final Four Darkhorse." Maybe that's true, but the designation has also made the Seminoles a tad bit overvalued here in Round 1. I concede that the Noles have lost only twice since January 22nd. Those losses were to North Carolina and the ACC Championship Game against Duke. They're 14-2 SU the L16 games. But this Vermont team is not to be taken lightly. The America East Champs play great defense and rebound shockingly well given their lack of height. It's also been a two-year journey back to the Tourney for the Catamounts. Take the points.

Vermont fans feel center Anthony Lamb is as good as any player in the country. He was certainly the best player in his conference. The Catamounts allow just 62.6 PPG, which is the 16th best in the entire country. In conference play, they allowed just 0.885 points per possession. The last five games saw them allow an average of just 52.6 PPG. Only three teams in the country gave up fewer offensive rebounds. Unaccustomed to being an underdog, Vermont will be very motivated here.

Back to the journey. Last year, Vermont was one of the top mid-majors in the country. But on their home floor, they were upset by UMBC (on a buzzer beater). We all know what happened w/ UMBC (became 1st 16-seed to win a NCAA Tourney Game). Vermont was not going to be denied this year, however. They got revenge on UMBC is this year's America East Final and here they are, a year more experienced. I think that after making a run to the ACC Final, FSU is due for a letdown. Vermont is the kind of team that pulls upsets in this Tournament. 8* Vermont

7* Vancouver (10:05 ET): Anytime you can go against Ottawa at this price, it's worth the shot. The Senators are wrapping up a truly miserable season, one which may end w/ them having the fewest points in the entire league. Right now, they own that distinction w/ 56, which is two back of the Kings. Given how Ottawa has played this year, the Kings are the only team they might finish ahead of. The Sens' play on the road has been truly horrific w/ them going 9-25-2 SU and giving up 4.3 goals per game (league high). They also allow a league high in shots per game at 36.0.

Vancouver still has a slim shot at making the playoffs, believe it or not, even though they are below .500 on the year. Truthfully, their league-leading 10 losses beyond regulation are what will be their undoing. But they are still only six points back of the Wild Card after winning two straight. Both wins came on the road, against Dallas and Chicago (whom they're competing w/ for a WC), by identical 3-2 scores. The Canucks had really been struggling before those two wins and admittedly, win streaks of three or more games have been few and far between this season. They've had three all year and all three were before Christmas.

But this is as favorable a spot as Vancouver will face all season w/ the worst team in the league (points wise) making its lone visit to British Columbia. I really cannot stress just how bad the Senators have been on the road this season. They're being outscored by 1.5 goals per game. Only four other teams are even being outscored by a full goal per game. I should also mention that in a real rarity - Ottawa is also off B2B wins here as they beat St. Louis 2-0 and Toronto 6-2. But both wins were at home. Something has to give here and I believe Vancouver is in much better position to continue its win streak. 7* Vancouver

10* Over Arizona State/St. John's (9:10 ET): I'm not entirely sure either of these teams belong in the field of 68, but that's all "water under the bridge" now. Arizona State has won six of eight w/ both losses coming to an Oregon team that's as hot as anyone in the country right now. Meanwhile, St. John's is really limping into the Big Dance as they've lost five of seven, including a rather humiliating 86-54 loss to Marquette in the Big East Tournament. Neither of these teams are exactly defensive stalwarts, so I'll be going Over in this Opening Round matchup Wednesday.

Arizona State comes in averaging a healthy 77.8 PPG and should have little difficulty here scoring against a St. John's team whose last five opponents have combined to shoot over 50% from the field. The Johnnies are allowing almost 80 PPG when away from home, which is a pretty frightening number for a NCAA Tournament team. Four of those last five Red Storm opponents have scored at least 81 pts, including Xavier twice and the Musketeers were one of the weakest offensive teams in the Big East. Overall, St. John's ranks an ugly 111th in defensive efficiency. Only 15 teams that made the field rank lower.

But ASU is exactly adept at limiting points, even though they held opponents to a 41.3 FG%. St. John's comes in averaging 77.5 PPG, so they also should "get theirs" tonight. All five of their starters are averaging double figures, led by Shamorie Ponds, who scored 25 or more points 10 times in the regular season. Ponds averages 19.5 PPG and topped 20 in nine straight games at one point. The Johnnies had seen four straight Overs before shooting just 32.8% in the loss to Marquette. But Arizona State is only 78th in defensive efficiency, so we'll see much better shooting here. 10* Over Arizona State/St. John's

10* San Antonio (8:35 ET): A month or so ago, it was no guarantee that either of these teams would make the playoffs. But both have gotten hot and now appear to be virtual locks for the postseason. Miami is still a precarious 8th in the East, but has won 8 of its last 11, including a 116-107 triumph at OKC on Monday. But San Antonio is the hottest team in the league right now w/ not only nine consecutive victories (8-1 ATS), but also six consecutive covers. They just beat the Warriors (here at home) Monday night and I see them continuing to roll here. Lay the points.

Defensive has fueled the Spurs' turnaround as they're now tied for 5th in the West (w/ OKC) at 42-29 SU overall. For awhile, this was looking like the worst defensive team HC Greg Popovich had ever coached in San Antonio. But the Spurs have been #2 in the league in defensive efficiency since Feb 26th, allowing 103.1 points per 100 possessions. This coupled w/ the fact they have been BETTER than usual at the offensive end this season (4th in efficiency), thanks primarily to leading the league in 3PT shooting % (39.8) by a comfortable margin. The win over Golden State improved the Spurs to a remarkable 16-1 ATS at home this season when playing w/ revenge for a road loss. They have revenge here as they lost down in Miami, 95-88, back in November.

The Heat have turned in some superb defensive efforts of their own recently. Notably, they've held Charlotte below 85 pts TWICE this month and Detroit to only 74. Those three wins were crucial in the playoff race. However, save for OKC, none of Miami's recent victories have come against competition the caliber of what they face tonight. It's both impressive and odd that the Heat have played better on the road this season, but I don't think that trend holds tonight as the Spurs are too hot to deny right now. 10* San Antonio

8* Under Pelicans/Magic (7:05 ET): Despite already being eliminated from playoff contention and having a worse overall record, a case can be made that New Orleans has been a better team than Orlando this year even though the Magic are very much alive for a playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. The Pelicans do have a slightly better YTD point differential. But they've also had to deal w/ the ongoing Anthony Davis saga and play in the tougher conference. Nevertheless, these two teams will meet tonight in Orlando and for a variety of reasons I'm expecting this to be a low-scoring game, at least lower scoring than the oddsmakers are anticipating. Take the Under.

Each of the Magic's last four games have gone Under. Two of them saw them get held under 100 points. The other two saw them do the same to their opponents. Probably not coincidentally, the two sub-100 pt efforts (both losses) came on the road. The two times they held the opponent below the century mark (both wins) came here at home. Given where this game is being played, I expect another strong defensive effort here from the Magic. Even in those two road losses, they allowed just 105 and 100 points. In the L5 games, they're allowing an average of 98.6 PPG. Helping the cause is the fact the Pelicans are now limiting Davis to about 20 mins per game.

New Orleans' recent efforts have been at the opposite end of the spectrum. Five of their last six games have gone Over and - on average - no team's games have a higher average total PPG than the Pelicans (232.1). Their last two games were a 138-136 loss to Phoenix and a 129-125 win over Dallas. Note both were overtime games, however. The L5 games have seen NO allow a frightening 128.6 PPG. But what goes up, must come down and in the case of that average, there's only one direction it can go. 8* Under Pelicans/Magic

10* Temple (9:10 ET): Belmont is the rare at-large NCAA Tournament entrant. The Bruins tied for the regular season title in the OVC (w/ Murray State), but fell to the Racers (who are led by the sensational Ja Morant) in the Tourney Final. I think it's nice that the Bruins got into the field of 68 (they were deserving!), but this is a much tougher draw than most realize. I reckon that Belmont will be the popular play b/c of the story here, but it's a little surprising they are favored considering Temple is the better defensive team and played a far tougher schedule in the American. I'm taking the points here.

Temple had an early exit in the American Tourney, losing to a lower seed (Wichita State) in the quarterfinals, 80-74 as 1.5-pt chalk. They limited the Shockers to 39.1% from the field, but the problem was the Owls had their own "off-shooting night." The Owls finished 3rd in the American, behind only Houston and Cincinnati. They were one of only two American teams to beat Houston in the regular season. While an extremely fortunate 4-0 in overtime games this year, the Owls were rarely blown. Their largest loss (18 pts) was to Tulsa of all teams. The only other DD loss came to Villanova. They went 6-3-1 ATS as underdogs.

It's not that Temple is that great defensively; it's also that Belmont is pretty bad at that end of the floor. The Bruins rank an ugly 127th in defensive efficiency, which is a key metric I lean heavily on this time of year. Belmont does shoot the three extremely well (37.4%), but Temple has fared well against such teams, going 8-0 ATS the L2 years vs. teams that shoot at least 37% from behind the arc. I don't think we'll see the usual three-point sharpshooting here from Belmont. They were just 7 of 32 (21.8%) vs. Murray State in the OVC Tourney Final, a potentially bad sign. Temple has an experienced backcourt, led by the AAC's top scorer Shizz Alston Jr. They get the cash. 10* Temple

10* Charlotte (7:05 ET): The mistake here is that the public sees the line an automatically gravitates towards the Sixers, who are third in the East and a "name team." But while Charlotte is currently 10th in the Eastern Conference, they're a much better team than the record shows. This has actually been the case for some time now w/ the Hornets. But the problem has been an incredibly frustrating 5-24 SU record in games decided by three points or less the L3 seasons. Their 10 such losses this year are easily the most in the league. But tonight, I've got them picking up a much needed win!

Sunday saw the Hornets turn in an absolutely dreadful showing at Miami. They put up only 75 points, which was fine by me as I had the Under (and it was a 46-point winner!) But from Charlotte's perspective, it was a very bad loss. It put them 2.5 games behind the Heat for the final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. It was also their 8th loss in the past 11 games. But despite this, a return home should do the team some good. They're 21-14 SU at home this season, outscoring opponents by about 4.0 PPG. This is a stark contrast to the team's poor performance on the road.

The Hornets basically have their "backs against the wall" going into this one. If they don't turn things around quickly, then it's time to kiss the playoffs goodbye. The upcoming schedule is challenging. But for as poor as Sunday's performance looks on paper, note it was a close game going into the 4th quarter. But they missed 13 of their final 16 shots, including all eight three-point attempt, and finished the game w/ a season-low 31.3 FG%. They'll be much better tonight, trust me. Philly is coming off a 130-125 win over Milwaukee (in spite of 52 pts from Giannis Antetokounmpo), but prone for a letdown on the road where they're just a game over .500 for the season (and -2.1 PPG). The fact that the Sixers are 3-0 SU/ATS vs. the Hornets in 2018-19 is misleading when you consider all three games were decided by three points or less and all were played before Thanksgiving. Two were overtime games. This is Charlotte's chance to make a statement and I believe they will deliver big-time. 10* Charlotte

8* Under Farleigh Dickinson/Prairie View A&M (6:40 ET): With the exception of North Carolina Central (who plays tomorrow), these are the two worst teams in the entire field of 68. Because of what UMBC did to Virginia LY, we can no longer automatically "write off" a 16 seed's chances, however, odds are that whomever wins here won't be celebrating for long. That's because the winner draws Gonzaga. Neither team here is noted for its defense, but playing in the "big time" figures to have a somewhat drastic impact on the respective offenses. I'll take the Under.

Farleigh Dickinson is the champion of the NEC (North Eastern Conference). They tied (w/ St. Francis PA) for the regular season title, then beat St. Francis in the NEC Tournament Final. So that's how they got here. But they are 0-5 SU all-time in the NCAA Tournament, losing by an average of 14 PPG. The Knights do shoot the ball very well from three-point range, 40.3% in fact, which ranks 5th in the entire country! But they also play at a very slow tempo and typically don't throw it up early on in the shot clock. If their perimeter shooting is off here, then it figures to be quite the long night offensively for FDU.

Conversely, Prairie View A&M will want to speed this game up. The regular season and tournament champs of the SWAC enter the Big Dance on an amazing run, having won 21 of their last 22 games. The Aggies put up some real "eye-popping" numbers in the SWAC Tournament, including dropping 92 on TX Southern in the Final. They've scored at least 81 pts in five of their last six games. But this game is a whole different story against an unfamiliar foe. A&M is actually one of the WORST three-point shooting teams in the entire field, if not country, at 30.8%. But the good news is they do guard the three-point line well, which will come in handy against the jump shooters of FDU. The Aggies rank 31st in the country in 3PT FG% defense and also do a great job at forcing turnovers. My read is that this will not be a typical game - for either side - as it figures to be pretty slow by Prairie View A&M standards while FDU will not be getting off the usual number of three pointers. 8* Under Farleigh Dickinson/Prairie View A&M