8* Penn State (8:55 ET): Indiana is squarely on the NCAA Tournament bubble right now. Yesterday’s win over Nebraska (who finished last in the Big 10) isn’t exactly going to do a ton for the Hoosiers’ perception, even though they did prevail by 25. I even took a flier on the Cornhuskers thinking IU was overvalued heading into that matchup. Here, the challenge is far greater as they face a rested Penn State team that should be plenty angry over how its regular season ended.

It was about a month ago that many considered Penn State to be a Sweet 16 team and possibly even more. A 77-61 win over Northwestern on Feb 15th was, at the time, the Nittany Lions 8th straight win and cover. But they’ve won only one time since, 65-64 over Rutgers, and are 0-6 ATS their L6 games. While still considered a very safe bet for next week’s NCAA Tournament, the Nittany Lions really could use a good showing this weekend to get their “mojo” back.

Obviously, Indiana is at a disadvantage having played yday while Penn State had a bye. The Hoosiers haven’t been particularly good outside of Assembly Hall this season, averaging only 63.0 PPG. That didn’t matter yday against a very short-handed Nebraska team, but Penn State is a much more talented foe. It was a split of two regular season meetings between these two sides, each winning at home. PSU, who still is top 25 in the country in defensive efficiency, held Indiana to 49 points when they won. The loss in Bloomington was less than a month ago so that’s still on the Nittany Lions’ minds. After yday’s offensive display, the Hoosiers are set to “cool down.” 8* Penn State

10* Carolina (7:05 ET): I firmly believe that the Hurricanes are going to make the playoffs, at least as a Wild Card (which is the position they’re currently in). They have a goal differential similar to the top three teams in the Metro and their number is actually slightly better than both Washington and Pittsburgh. Scoring differential (in any sport) is the best representation of a team’s true dominance (or lack thereof) and the bottom line here is that the ‘Canes are pretty easily a top six team in the East and top 10 team in the league.

New Jersey sits last in Metro w/ just 68 points. They are the only team in the division that’s not in playoff contention. You may recall I just played against them Tuesday night, taking the Penguins here in East Rutherford. That ended up being a 5-2 game that NJ never led and managed only 22 shots on goal. While they’d been playing a bit better of late, I think Tuesday’s loss clearly showed the Devils shouldn’t be expected to compete with the top teams in the Metro.

The Devils have allowed the third most goals in the league this year and are 12-20 SU after allowing 4+ their previous game. Carolina, who is on a three-game win streak right now, has scored 11 goals in its last two games. When they faced NJ on Valentine’s Day, the Hurricanes found the back of the net five times in an easy win on home ice. I expect this team to continue to roll tonight. 10* Carolina

10* Davidson (6:00 ET): Davidson underachieved greatly during the regular season. They were actually one of two teams picked to finish ahead of Dayton in the preseason A-10 poll. But the regular season ended with an impressive 75-65 victory over VCU, who was the preseason favorite to win the conference. The Wildcats also had little difficulty with LaSalle in the lone regular season meeting, winning that one 74-49 as an 11-point favorite. I had the Under in that game and it's the only Under to hit in Davidson’s L8 games.

I don’t think the Wildcats will have much problem defeating LaSalle this time around either. The Explorers have won 2 of 3 since losing to Davidson and 4 of 6 overall, but most wins came against bottom teams in the conference. In fact, three of them were against teams that had to play in yday’s opening round here in Atlantic City. The Explorers were held to 38.0% shooting in that first matchup vs. Davidson and missed 14 of 16 three-point attempts. Sadly (for them) that’s pretty “par for the course” as they shot 40% in conference play this season.

When Davidson wins, it’s often by a large margin. Of their last nine victories, eight have come by double digits. Four of those have been by 25 or more points! While a far more dominant team at home, I do not expect this team to “go quietly” this weekend. They’ve beaten LaSalle seven of the last nine meetings straight up and the Explorers (off a 78-77 win over St. Joe’s) is just 1-5 ATS off its last six SU wins. 10* Davidson

8* Duke (2:30 ET): The fact that Duke ended up as the 4-seed in the ACC Tournament is quite preposterous when you consider I have them rated as the #2 team in the COUNTRY (behind Kansas). They should be considered the favorite to cut down the nets this weekend in Greensboro, something Coach K teams have done with great regularity in the past. They’ve captured 21 tournament titles all-time including last year’s. In the quarterfinals, the Blue Devils will be meeting NC State, who beat Pitt 73-58 yday.

These in-state rivals split the pair of regular season meetings, each winning at home. NC State pulled an 88-66 shocker in Raleigh as six-point pups. Duke came into the rematch off B2B losses, but easily handled the Wolfpack in Durham for an 88-69 victory. That was followed by a win over North Carolina in the regular season finale. Obviously, by getting a top four seed, the Blue Devils enjoy the benefit of rest for the rubber match. When playing on three or more days rest this season, Duke is 13-4 SU and winning by an avg margin of 13.8 PPG.

This is the first time all year that NC State has played B2B days and they are just 1-2 SU/ATS on one days rest, getting outscored in those games by 9.0 PPG. Interestingly enough, the last time they had just one day off between games was when they last faced Duke. They allowed a season-high 88 points in that game. Duke is simply the better team here and should have little difficulty winning by more than the margin the oddsmakers are calling for. 8* Duke

10* Under Pelicans/Kings (10:35 ET): A rare trip for ESPN to the capital city of California, but these teams are currently part of a three-way tie for ninth place in the Western Conference and 3.5 games back of Memphis, who occupies the “coveted” 8th and final playoff spot. We’ve got a very high O/U line Weds night, which shouldn’t be all that surprising considering the amount of scoring we typically see in both teams’ games. But the number is too high in my opinion. I’m taking the Under.

New Orleans had little difficulty beating Minnesota 120-107 on Sunday and easily covered the 7-point spread. That came on the heels of a big home win against Miami two nights prior. In both wins, the Pelicans played pretty good defense as they held the Heat to 43.0% shooting and Minnesota to 39.4%. More than half of the Pelicans’ games this season have had totals of 230 or higher (which is crazy!) including the L11. The Under is 6-2 in their last eight games, a streak which coincides with the arrival of Zion Williamson into the everyday lineup.

Sacramento has dropped two of three with their last four games all going Over. But moving forward it seems logical to anticipate a reduction in both points scored and allowed as they average just 109.3 points themselves for the season while allowing 110.9. For them, this is a pretty high total. The only previous meeting vs. New Orleans this year ended in a 117-115 loss for the Kings, which was an Over back then (January) but would be an Under here. 10* Under Pelicans/Kings

10* Under Vanderbilt/Arkansas (9:25 ET): Both teams have been going Over a lot recently (three straight for Vandy and five straight for Arkansas). But when facing each other, Under has been the way to go in the past. The last four head to head meetings have all stayed Under including a 75-55 Hogs’ win in Fayatteville two months ago. Look for this 1st round SEC Tournament matchup to do the same.

Arkansas has basically been going Over in almost every game this year. Not only do they come into the SEC Tourney on five-game Over streak, the Razorbacks are 15-2 Over in conference play this season! The Vandy game was one of the two that stayed Under obviously, a 73-59 loss at Florida on 2/18 was the other. Of course, this is a team that played FOUR overtime games in the regular season (helps w/ Overs) as well. The L5 games have been far higher scoring than normal for the Hogs, averaging 164.8 PPG, which is way up from where they are at for the season (145 PPG). The recent numbers aren’t likely to hold.

While not on campus, the SEC Tournament does take place in Nashville, giving Vanderbilt a slight boost. The Commodores finished last in the regular season though w/ only three conference wins. Two of those three came in the last eight days in upsets over Alabama and South Carolina. The Commies averaged 85 PPG in that pair of victories, which is highly unlike them as they average only 71.7 PPG for the season. They too are “due” for a downturn in scoring. They’ve shot less than 40% in conference play this season! 10* Under Vanderbilt/Arkansas

8* Nebraska (8:30 ET): Look, there’s no sugarcoating how badly Nebraska has been beaten up by the rest of the Big 10 this year. The Cornhuskers not only enter the Tournament as the lowest seed, but also short-handed due to the suspensions of Burke and Mack. With their last win coming all the way back on January 7th, they clearly are not long for this event. It’s a 16-game losing streak they're on right now.

But Indiana happens to be the classic “overvalued” bubble team tonight. If you believe in Joe Lunardi, the Hoosiers are currently one of the “last four in” the field of 68. They would be the 10th team representing the Big 10 in the NCAA Tournament. Because of the “must-win” nature that they face right now, bettors have jumped on IU here and driven the line up to a far higher place than it should be. I don’t see the line getting any bigger, so jump in and play now.

Indiana has beaten Nebraska twice this year, but both wins were by single digits. The Hoosiers have a problem outside of Bloomington in that they only average 60.8 PPG. Incredibly, they did not win a single “true” road game during the regular season (0-12). Ask yourself - do you really want to lay double digits with a team like that? The Hoosiers have dropped three of their last four games and were held under 60 pts in two of the losses. 8* Nebraska

10* Arizona (5:30 ET): Is it really true that Washington was once ranked in the Top 25 this season? I swear that it is! The Huskies even opened their season by beating Baylor. They got as high as #21 in the polls before the “bottom dropped out” and that “bottom” just so happened to be “conference play.” Going into last week, UW was just 3-13 SU vs. the rest of the Pac 12 and two of those victories came back in January. Two wins last week are not enough to convince me that this team is ready to make a move in the conference tournament.

Arizona can be prone to some truly awful shooting nights. But I believe this team is MUCH better than its 5th place regular season finish in the Pac 12 would seem to indicate. There’s a case to be made that on any given night the Wildcats are as good as any team in the league. Even though they underachieved and (like Washington) are no longer ranked, I still consider Arizona as a Top 20 team and a real “darkhorse” in the NCAA Tournament.

This is a revenge spot for the Wildcats, who dropped the regular season finale (at home) to Washington by a score of 68-62. They went into that game as 10-pt chalk. It was one of their “bad shooting nights” as they finished just 35.1% from the field despite shooting a reasonable percentage from 3-point range. Still a top 15 team in defensive efficiency, I’ll call for the Wildcats to shoot the ball MUCH better from inside the arc here. I can’t see Washington pulling a third straight upset after going 1-10 SU its previous 11 games. 10* Arizona

10* Under Magic/Grizzlies (8:05 ET): As far as the O/U goes in this matchup, something is going to have to give. Orlando has gone Over in an incredible 11 straight games, a sharp departure from the way most of their season has gone. The Magic have spent the balance of the year near the bottom of the league in points per game scored while simultaneously ranking near the top in PPG allowed. Conversely, you have Memphis having gone Under in their L6 games after spending so much of their season putting up big point totals.

Consider for a moment that Orlando still ranks 28th in the league in scoring (106.2 PPG), despite the 11 straight Overs, and they are also #4 in points allowed (107.2). They had been 30-22-1 Under this season before the current run of Overs began. It’s been dramatic increases on BOTH sides of the floor recently w/ them averaging 118.2 PPG and allowing 116.8 PPG. How can this be explained? Honestly, I’m not sure! But after averaging 120.8 PPG these L11 contests, they’re bound for a “cooling off” period. It’s not as if there’s been some radical transformation in personnel.

Memphis has been playing great defense of late, giving up an average of just 95.4 points the L5 games. Only one time during that stretch have they allowed more than 101 pts and that was to Dallas, who boasts the most efficient offensive attack in the league this season. The Grizzlies have been massive overachievers this season, winning 34 times despite being favored in only 18 games. When favored, the Under has gone 12-6. 10* Under Magic/Grizzlies

8* Northern Kentucky (7:00 ET): Northern Kentucky came into yesterday knowing that whomever the opponent was, the Horizon League Championship Game would be an opportunity for revenge. The Norse have lost only two games since the start of February. One was a two-point loss to regular season champ Wright State. The other was a shocking 30-point loss to UIC. Surprisingly, they find themselves with the opportunity to avenge the more shocking defeat as UIC upset top seed Wright State in yesterday’s semifinal round.

Of course, NKU also had to handle its own business in the semifinals yesterday. They did just that, beating Green Bay 80-69 as a 5.5-point favorite. The Norse weren’t necessarily dominant, but they got the job done. They went ahead for good with 9:52 left in the game and now look to make the NCAA Tournament for the third time in the last four years. They’d been regular season champs each of the past two seasons, so make no mistake about it - this has been the dominant program in the Horizon League.

When the Norse lost 73-43 (at home!) to UIC back on Feb 16th, they had to endure one of the most wretched shooting nights of the entire College Basketball season. They connected on only 22% of their total field goal attempts and were 4 of 32 from three-point range. Meanwhile, UIC shot 50% overall and was 11 of 20 from behind the arc. Needless to say, that kind of shooting discrepancy isn’t happening again here. Northern Kentucky beat UIC by 16 in the season’s first meeting and should roll in similar fashion tonight. 8* Northern Kentucky