8* Portland State (10:05 ET): Portland State began 2020 with four straight road games, three of them ending up as losses. But they returned home on Saturday and prevailed 82-76 against Idaho State. The Vikings have played a lot of close games in conference play, but tonight they host one of the Big Sky’s weaker teams, that being Weber State. Damian Lillard’s alma mater also happens to be off a win over Idaho State (Thursday) but they needed OT and are only 6-11 SU on the season. This will be Weber State’s fourth time playing on the road since the new year began.

Weber State has won just one time as an underdog (1-10 SU in that role) all year and that was 72-67 at Utah Valley State back on December 4th. They’re just 4-7 ATS getting points so them getting such a small number here doesn’t make them the least bit attractive. Again, the Wildcats needed overtime to snap a three-game losing skid on Thursday. They trailed by seven at halftime. It was the fourth straight game where they were held to 64 pts or less in regulation. This team is 287th in offensive efficiency and 280th in defensive efficiency.

Portland State has been one of the worst defensive teams in the country so far, but is far more efficient than Weber State on the offensive end (80th nationally). Despite a quicker turnaround between games, I like the spot more for the Vikings as they are at home where they’ve won 25 of their last 36 games straight up. Weber State’s struggles as an underdog aren’t just limited to this season. They’ve lost 23 of their last 28 in that role. It’ll be too much offense from Portland State (82.1 PPG at home) for the underdog to overcome in this one. 8* Portland State

8* Indiana (9:05 ET): The Pacers pulled out a win in Denver last night, rallying with a 41-point 4Q, 18 of those coming from Doug McDermott. They also owned the Nuggets from behind the three-point line, outscoring them there 39-9. The win was the fifth straight for Indiana, who is now 28-15 SU for the year and tied with Boston for 4th place in the Eastern Conference standings. They’ve covered the spread four times during the five-game win streak and won outright both times they were an underdog. They haven’t been a dog of this size since playing at Milwaukee before X-Mas.

Speaking of X-Mas, Utah must have gotten one heck of a gift because they’re 11-1 SU since the holiday. They’ve climbed up to third in the West, tied w/ Denver at 29-13. The Jazz’s home record is 16-3 SU, which is one of the best home win percentages in the entire league. They’ve lost only two games since December 10th and both were on the road. Since suffering their last home loss (12/9 vs. OKC), the team has gone 16-2 SU overall.

But as hot as the Jazz have been, I feel they are due to “cool off” some. This line is inflated due to it being the second game of a back to back for Indiana. But the Pacers are a solid 3-3 SU in this situation, only being outscored by 3.8 PPG. Too often we see the rested team overvalued in this spot and that’s the case again here. The Jazz have a losing SU record (6-8) vs. teams that have winning records. Incredibly, their L10 games have all been against sub-.500 foes, which explains the win streak. 8* Indiana

10* Charlotte (5:05 ET): This is the first meeting of the season between these Southeast Division rivals.They split four games last year. Neither comes into MLK Day playing particularly well. Orlando is in 7th place in the Eastern Conference, but is just 20-23 SU on the season after losing B2B games. Charlotte has lost six in a row, but at least they are now back home after a winless four-game trip out West. This will be the sixth straight road game for the Magic, the last five all coming out West. The situation definitely looks better for the Hornets.

After what he called a “disturbing” effort by his team at Golden State the other night, Magic HC Steve Clifford didn’t mince words when it came to the set up for today’s game. "The Charlotte game is going to be difficult because of the travel, the schedule, which to me is ridiculous." Again, Orlando is coming off five straight road games out West, four of which came in a six-day span. Meanwhile, Charlotte hasn’t played since Wednesday and after tonight won’t play again until Friday when they face the Bucks in Paris. This game figures to have their full attention. Hornets HC James Borrego seems confident about tonight after all the practice time his team was able to log.

Orlando was favored (by six) when it lost at Golden State. That was a really bad loss considering the Warriors had lost their previous 10 games and were very short-handed. After jumping out to a 13-0 lead, the Magic were outscored 109-88 the rest of the way. It marked the third time on this trip that they were held below 100 points, nothing new considering they are the league’s lowest scoring team. They made just 29% from 3-pt range vs. Golden State as they fell to 3-7 SU L10 road games. It’s an easy decision to fade them as a favorite in this spot. 10* Charlotte

10* Over Red Wings/Avalanche (3:05 ET): Colorado has come on strong these last two games, beating San Jose 4-0 and St. Louis 5-3. That pair of victories now has them in second place in the Central Division w/ 60 pts, eight back of the first place Blues. They’ve got the Western Conference’s best goal differential (+33), so it would certainly appear as if this club is going to have a productive second half of the season. With 173 goals scored in 48 games, the Avs are the West’s highest scoring team.

Detroit is the worst team in all of hockey. They are in last place in the Atlantic with just 28 points. To put that number in its proper perspective, every other team in the league has at least 41 points. The Red Wings also have a -85 YTD goal differential. To put that number in proper perspective, the next worst goal differential in the league is -47. So things are looking rather bleak in the Motor City right now. The team’s biggest issue is that they have given up the most goals in the league. So an Avs team that’s among the league leaders in scoring certainly looks to be a poor matchup.

While the Red Wings are also last in the league in goals scored, we can count on Colorado doing most of the heavy lifting here anyway. The Avalanche have scored nine goals in the last two games alone. They average 3.8 goals per game on the season while Detroit gives up 4.2 on the road. Getting four or five goals here from the Avs is a very strong possibility, so the hope is that the Red Wings can get at least two. The Over is 6-2 in Colorado’s last eight home games. 10* Over Red Wings/Avalanche

10* Over Cal/UCLA (8:00 ET): Neither team is playing well and both are off less than stellar offensive efforts. California put just 56 points on the board Thursday night at USC in what ended up being a humiliating 32 point defeat. UCLA could manage only 59 points in a 15-point loss at Stanford Wednesday. The two 8-9 teams meet Sunday night in Pauley Pavillion, both desperate for a win. UCLA is 1-6 SU/ATS its last seven games (0-3 SU/ATS L3) while Cal is 3-7 SU/ATS its L10.

The struggles you’ve seen from both of these teams are not limited to the offensive end of the floor. Cal let USC shoot 50% from the field as it remained winless on the road this year. A big reason for that winless record is that they give up 75.7 PPG away from Berkeley. They don’t exactly shoot well either, but going against UCLA should help. The Bruins have given up at least 74 points in six of their last seven games.

UCLA’s last two opponents have both shot better than 50%. I expect this to turn into a pretty high scoring game. Cal is 164th nationally in defensive efficiency while UCLA is an atrocious 233rd. UCLA is 7-4 Over as a favorite this year while Cal is 4-1 Over after being held to 60 points or less in its last game. 10* Over Cal/UCLA

10* NY Rangers (7:05 ET): By virtue of a four-game win streak, Columbus has moved into 4th place in the Metro w/ 58 points. They won last night, 5-0 over last place New Jersey, but face a quick turnaround here against the Rangers. NY is trying to stay relevant in the playoff chase, but their 50 points has them in seventh in the division. Still plenty of time to make a move though and what I find interesting is that these two clubs have pretty similar YTD goal differentials. I’ll go with the rested home team on Sunday.

The Rangers have been off for the last two days. They just swept a home and home from the Islanders, which was huge in the grand scheme of things. Overall, the Rangers have won four of five w/ the lone loss coming to the Stanley Cup Champion Blues. Earlier this year, they went into C-bus and beat the Blue Jackets 3-2 despite facing a 47-19 deficit in shots on goal. You can bet shots will be more even this time around and the situation really does favor NY here.

Three of Columbus’ last four victories have been shutouts. That’s quite impressive, but they figure to have a hard time tonight slowing down a Rangers team that averages 3.7 goals per game here at MSG. The Rangers have scored a total of 17 goals their L3 home games, scoring at least five in each one. Meanwhile, the Blue Jackets are only averaging 2.6 gpg on the road. The Rangers have won their last five home games. 10* NY Rangers

10* Under Packers/49ers (6:40 ET): This total is pretty close to what the combined number of points was in the regular season meeting. Of course that game, a 37-8 49ers’ win and cover as 3-pt chalk, was completely lopsided. I think Green Bay is going to be a lot more competitive this time around although I won’t deny that San Francisco remains the much better team, confirmed by the fact that they have a +186 YTD point differential while Green Bay is just +68.

But this is a lot of points to lay to a team that has Aaron Rodgers at QB. Then again, Rodgers had one of his worst days as a pro back in Week 12 on this very field. He threw for just 104 yards and averaged 1.7 yards per attempt with no completion going longer than 15 yards. Fresh off its bye and back at full strength, the 49ers’ defense displayed similar form last week against the Vikings, holding them to just 3.3 yards per play and seven first downs total. In other words, I don’t expect the Packers to score very many points this week.

But the Green Bay defense is likely to keep them in this one. This is a team that hasn’t lost since that regular season matchup against the 49ers and during the 6-game win streak, they have yielded a total of just 94 points! Prior to last week’s 28-23 win over Seattle (I had the Over), the Packers’ previous four games had all stayed Under the total. It’s a much better defense that they are up against here and last week the Pack were held to 7 points after halftime. For the season, both defenses are allowing less than 20 PPG. 10* Under Packers/49ers

10* Tennessee (3:05 ET): The Titans obviously made a lot of history last week in what was also a big win for the sportsbooks. Baltimore had been 36-0 all-time (SU) as a double digit favorite, the only franchise never to lose as DD chalk. They’d also never lost at home as more than 8.5-pt favorite. But the Titans changed all that with a 28-12 upset and are now 8-1 ATS all-time as underdogs of 7 or more under HC Mike Vrabel, pulling SEVEN outright upsets along the way including a perfect 4-0 SU/ATS this season.

Kansas City won its Divisional Round game against Houston 51-31, but anyone that watched knows it wasn’t that easy as the Chiefs had to rally from an early 24-0 hole. Outscoring the Texans 51-7 the rest of the way was quite an achievement, however, here they are up against a far more stout team on the defensive side of the ball. Even with last week’s ATS victory, the Chiefs are still only 2-10 ATS all-time at Arrowhead in the playoffs.

Tennessee has already beaten New England and Baltimore to get here while all Kansas City did was beat Houston, the team I had rated the lowest coming into the playoffs. My number for this game is +4.5 so there’s clear value on the Titans, who have already beaten the Chiefs this year, 35-32 (+4) in Nashville back in Week 10. I had Tennessee in that game. The Titans defense has allowed just 25 points in two playoff games while the offense features RB Henry, who has gone for 180+ yds in both games. Since Ryan Tannehill became the starting QB, Tennessee has gone 9-3 SU w/ a point differential of +82. While they were outgained by Baltimore, that was because of garbage time. I passed on the Titans last week, not here. 10* Tennessee

8* San Antonio (3:05 ET): When these teams met down in Miami on Wednesday, I felt taking the Heat was a very logical call. After all, they came into the game with the league’s best home record (17-1 SU) and were laying a pretty short number. Well, turns out I was right as Miami is now 18-1 SU at home after beating the Spurs 106-100. But they just BARELY covered and it was more of a struggle than I anticipated as the Heat actually trailed going into the 4Q. Each team has played once since then and it the same result for both with the Heat winning (at OKC) and SA losing (to Atlanta).

The Spurs have made the postseason every year since 1998, which is an NBA record. But it looks like that streak may be in serious jeopardy now with the team currently not in the top eight in the Western Conference. They’re two games back of suddenly red hot Memphis and an embarrassing loss to lowly Atlanta certainly did not help matters. That loss, which was on Friday, was 121-120 as a nine-point favorite. The Spurs blew a 14-point lead in the 4Q.

After a loss like that, I expect the Spurs to be ready to go this afternoon. Miami is nowhere near as strong on the road where they win just 50% of the time. They’ve been outscored in their road games. While it was a 115-106 win at Oklahoma City on Friday, the Heat are just 6-10 ATS this season after scoring 115+ in their previous game. They have previously lost at Washington and New York. There was also a 20-pt loss in Orlando. The Spurs are 54-34 ATS in revenge spots the L3 seasons. 8* San Antonio

8* Houston (8:35 ET): It should be a good one for this first installment of Saturday night NBA on ABC. But a number of factors are pointing me in the direction of the Rockets. First off, while both teams come in off a loss, Houston is clearly more desperate. They’ve actually lost two in a row to fall to fifth in a very top-heavy Western Conference. Losing by 10 at home to Portland Thursday night was kind of shocking, but the Rockets are 6-1 ATS this season off a double digit loss. That makes it seem quite logical to lay the short number.

The Lakers’ loss to Orlando Wednesday night was by just a single point (119-118) and ended a nine-game win streak. They hadn’t lost since X-Mas. All season, the Lakers have lost just three times by double digits and they are 22-1 SU vs. sub-.500 teams. The one loss was to Orlando as both Anthony Davis and Rajon Rondo sat. Both are officially listed as questionable for tonight. Against teams with winning records, the Lakers are a more “mortal” 11-7.

This is only the second time the Rockets have lost two in a row this season. They did have a three-game losing skid in November, but otherwise have been a “safe bet” off a loss. Two straight losses as a favorite is a first, so again they’ll be the more “desperate” side tonight. This one simply means more to them. 8* Houston