10* Under Oilers/Golden Knights (10:38 ET): It's a really tight race at the top of the Pacific Division right now. Vegas, who has won six in a row, currently leads with 76 points. But both Vancouver and Edmonton are only two points behind. Tonight, the Golden Knights host one of those teams (Edmonton) in a very important matchup. But who wins here is of little importance to me as I see a total that’s been set too high for such a high-stakes battle.

The offense has come alive for Vegas during this six-game win streak as they’ve scored at least 5 times in four of the six games. That includes each of the last three with a 6-5 win over Anaheim on Sunday (in OT) being the most recent decision. Tonight is the start of what looks to be a very favorable homestand for the Golden Knights. But we don’t see the recent level of goal scoring continuing. Also, the team is 5-1 Under the previous six times they’ve been off a game where they allowed 5+ goals.

Edmonton lost 4-3 last night in Anaheim, also an overtime game, which would seemingly put them at a disadvantage tonight. But note the Oilers are a perfect 6-0 this season playing in the second night of a back to back. However, over a longer term, they are just 4-10 SU after going to OT the previous day. Last night’s game was 3-2 late in the 3rd period (Edmonton trailed) so it easily could have stayed Under. This one will as that’s how four of the five all-time meetings in Vegas have gone. 10* Under Oilers/Golden Knights

10* Missouri (9:00 ET): I happen to think the SEC isn’t very good this year. Other than Kentucky, there’s no team I feel is a strong bet to get out of the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament (and the Wildcats are far from a lock to do so themselves). Neither of the two teams in question here are going to even make the NCAA Tournament, but it’s a matchup where there’s definitely value as the last place team in the conference is getting far too much respect here.

Vanderbilt is last in the SEC with a 1-13 SU conference record. That one win was a real shocker as they upset LSU (who was unbeaten in conference play at the time), here in Nashville. However, other than that, this season has been a disaster for the Commodores. They are being outscored by 11.4 PPG in SEC play and have lost their last five games by a pretty similar margin. I see no reason to expect them to win tonight.

Missouri isn’t exactly a world-beater but this spread basically dictates that all we need from them tonight is a SU win. The Tigers had covered four in a row before losing to Arkansas last Saturday. Mizzou has had a lot more success in the SEC this year than has Vandy, beating the likes of Arkansas (first time around), Auburn and Florida, all of whom could be NCAA Tournament teams. They also nearly upset LSU on the road. Lay the points here. 10* Missouri

10* Washington (7:05 ET): Over the previous few days, I’ve experienced success by both taking and fading Brooklyn. Of course they just lost Kyrie Irving for the year, so fading the Nets seems logical right now. But not last Saturday when I said they were the right side in Charlotte and sure enough came away with a 29-point victory. But facing a much better Orlando team Monday, they lost 115-113 as a 3.5-point favorite. So what’s a bettor to do Wednesday when the Nets host Washington?

The Wizards fall somewhere in between the Magic and Hornets in my power rankings, so that makes the decision on how to answer the question above a little murkier. Three straight losses since the All-Star Break have done the Wiz no favors. But Bradley Beal has gone for 50+ (points) in B2B games. That the Wizards have lost both is somewhat incredible as Beal is the first player in league history to go for 50+ in B2B games since Kobe Bryant did it four straight times back in ‘07.

Brooklyn blew a 19-pt lead Monday, the second time in less than a week they blew a lead of that size and lost. It’s been a profitable February for them (6-2-1 ATS) but they have just two road wins and one was by a single point. They lost here in D.C. back on Feb 1, 113-107, and are now just 10-17 SU on the road for the season. The Wizards are 6-1 ATS this season when off 3+ SU losses. They have a red hot Beal while the Nets just lost Irving. Washington is 14-2 SU its L16 games vs. Brooklyn. 10* Washington

10* Golden State (10:35 ET): It’s been hard times for the Warriors this season as injuries to Steph Curry and Klay Thompson had them derailed from the very start. They have gone from being the best team in the league over the last five seasons to having the worst record in 2019-20, which is as precipitous a fall as I’ve seen in this league in a long time. But I’m still unsure that they should be getting this many points at home against the Kings, a team that just isn’t favored on the road very often.

The Kings didn’t need any points to defeat the Clippers on Saturday. The 112-103 outright upset (were +9) was the Kings’ second win in a row and fifth in the last seven games. That said, they are still 10 games below .500 and unlikely to make the playoffs. They are just 3-3 STRAIGHT UP in the road favorite role and my guess is this could end up being the most points they have to lay in any road game all season.

The Warriors have lost six in a row coming into tonight’s game, so they should be hungry for a win. No Marvin Bagley III means it will be tough for Sacramento to keep winning and I think they are prone for a letdown here after upsetting the Clippers. I just don’t think the spread should be this high. 10* Golden State

10* Over Blackhawks/Blues (8:05 ET): The last place and first place teams in the Central meet in an old Norris Division rivalry matchup. St. Louis, after losing five in a row, has circled the wagons to win its last four games while conceding just two goals! Chicago, as you’d expect from a last place club, has dropped three of four and scored just eight goals in the process. But I believe this game will be higher scoring than expected. <

Back on Feb 15th, the Blackhawks erupted for eight goals in a win at Calgary. That matched the number of goals they scored the five games previous and also matches the total number of goals scored in the four games since. On the other end of the ice, Chicago continues to be among the worst in the league at allowing shots on goal. The L5 games have seen them allow 39.4 per game, which is even more than usual.

The Blues will likely need to do most of the “heavy lifting” here as far as the Over in concerned, but they are more than capable of doing so as was evident in their past two contests when they combined to score nine times. The Over is 6-3 this season in St. Louis when the total is 6.0 or higher. They have scored four goals in each of the two games vs. Chicago, both wins. 10* Over Blackhawks/Blues

10* Baylor (8:00 ET): Pretty simple here as Baylor is looking to bounce back from its loss Saturday to Kansas. That loss snapped the Bears’ 23-game win streak and dropped them from #1 in the polls. Still though, there’s plenty to celebrate here in Waco. This remains a very likely #1 seed in the NCAA Tournament and they could end up as the #1 overall seed in the field of 68.

Kansas State is the team that finds itself in the unenviable position of facing Baylor tonight. This is a case of “wrong place, wrong time” for the Wildcats and to make matters worse they come in on a seven-game losing streak. The most points they’ve scored in any of those games is 67, ironically against Baylor, but the issues scoring are likely to really bite this team tonight w/ Baylor allowing just 56.8 PPG at home.

Provided there’s no letdown amongst the players, Baylor should easily roll in this one. Kansas State has major issues scoring (60.5 PPG away from Manhattan) and has just one win away from home all season. The Wildcats’ current form doesn’t inspire any confidence that they can get the job done here and this one has the potential to get “ugly” in a hurry. Baylor is #2 in the country in defensive efficiency and has proven it can win games by large margins even w/o large production from its leading scorers. 10* Baylor

7* Washington (7:05 ET): After briefly falling out of first place in the Metro, the Capitals have climbed their way back to the top, thanks to a three-game losing streak by Pittsburgh. But it’s still only a two-point edge over the Pens, meaning tonight’s home game vs. Winnipeg is quite critical. Maybe not as critical as Sunday’s 5-3 win here over Pittsburgh, but the Caps do need this one. Fortunately for them, this will be the Jets’ third road game in four nights.

Winnipeg is just trying to get into the postseason field. Right now they find themselves one point behind the two Wild Card teams, Calgary and Arizona, who are in the other division. The Jets’ chances of finishing third in their own division are rather small at this point. So it’s going to have to be the Wild Card, if they are to make it into the playoffs. But losses at Philadelphia and Buffalo over the weekend certainly didn’t help. The Jets managed only three goals in the two losses, a far cry from the number they scored (11) in the previous two contests.

While Washington did lose four in a row before beating Pittsburgh Sunday, I’m quite confident they get the job done here. They remain one of the elite teams in the league and this just isn’t a great spot for Winnipeg to pull an upset. Not only are the Jets just 1-10 SU in the third game of a “3 (games) in 4 nights situation,” but they are also 2-9 SU their L11 times as a ML dog. 7* Washington

10* Over Hornets/Pacers (7:05 ET): Charlotte is a team that I have very little regard for right now. I’ve been pretty steadfast in this mindset, which is why I went “all in” against them Saturday with a ~SIGNATURE~ *10* ULTIMATE POWER release on Brooklyn. The final score of that game was 115-86 (in the Nets’ favor) as Charlotte’s per game point differential for the season dropped to -7.4. That’s 4th worst in the league.

There seems to be a very good chance Indiana will finish 6th in the Eastern Conference as they simply lack the kind of home court dominance we see from the the two teams (Miami, Philadelphia) that are ahead of them in the standings. But it was the road that was unkind to the Pacers Sunday as they were severely routed 127-81 by Toronto. That putrid effort saw them held to 32.6% shooting for the game. It was easily their worst margin of defeat this season.

Indiana hasn’t shot well in either of its games since the Break. Despite sustaining some injuries, you have to figure they’ll see their shooting improve upon returning home tonight. This is a team that normally shoots the ball pretty well (47.4%) and they average almost 110 PPG. As for Charlotte, they too shot poorly in their last game and I expect improvement there. This is a really low total by 2020 NBA standards. 10* Over Hornets/Pacers

10* Under LaSalle/Davidson (7:00 ET): Davidson had certainly hoped to be a bigger factor in the A-10 this year, but like everyone else in the conference, the Wildcats are looking up at Dayton. Still though, that hasn’t stopped them from playing better of late. Davidson has won 7 of its last 10 games with one of the losses coming in 4OT’s and another coming by a single point. Of particular interest to this selection is the fact the L4 games have all gone Over the number.

LaSalle went 2-0 last week including an upset win at GW on Sunday. The Explorers entered their last game as three-point pups and came away w/ a 72-62 win in what was (sadly) maybe their most impressive showing in conference play so far. Prior to last week, LaSalle was just 2-10 SU in A-10 games. Their three conference wins besides the one at GW have come at the expense of Fordham & St. Joe’s, who are a combined 2-26 SU in conference play and tied for last.

I mentioned earlier that Davidson’s L4 games have all gone Over. Well, the last one would NOT have done so had it not been for OT. There was also another game in the streak that saw them sink a season-high 18 three-pointers (against Fordham), which won’t happen again anytime soon. Davidson is actually a good defensive team (allowing just 61.1 PPG at home) and w/ LaSalle shooting only 40% in conference play, this looks like a pretty clear Under to me. 10* Under LaSalle/Davidson

8* New York (8:00 ET): It normally would take a lot for me to consider the Knicks as a viable play, but in this case we are getting “a lot” … a lot of points that is! There haven’t been too many games this season where NY has gotten more points than they are here. On the flip side of that, this could end up being the most points Houston has had to lay in any game this season. The Rockets do come in on a 3-game SU/ATS win streak, but two of the victories were by less of a margin than what the oddsmakers are calling for tonight.

The Knicks have played just one game since the All-Star Break and it was a 106-98 home loss to Indiana. They actually finished with a higher overall FG% than the Pacers (43.2 to 40.6), but were ultimately undone by the fact Indiana made more free throws than NY even attempted! I should point out that prior to the Break, the Knicks started February on a 4-0 SU/ATS run with three of those wins coming on the road. One (at Indiana) even came as a DD dog.

The Rockets are just 7-5 STRAIGHT UP when coming into a game on a win streak of at least three games. While there’s no debate as to who the better team is in this matchup, laying this many points is not something I’d really advise doing in any NBA matchup. Let’s not forget that Houston does not defend particularly well. 8* New York