The Baylor Bears have the sixth-best scoring defense in the nation, allowing just 58.6 ppg. They're coming off a high-scoring 75-68 win at Oklahoma State but had played four straight unders prior to that. Here they'll face an Oklahoma team that also had played four straight unders prior to an 83-63 loss to TCU. Under is 7-3 in Sooners last 10 games as a road underdog and 6-1 in Bears last 7 games as a home favorite.

10* play on UNDER.

The Miami Heat took a 107-102 loss at San Antonio on Sunday afternoon. They get a chance to bounce back in front of the home town crowd at American Airlines Arena where they're 18-1 SU on the season, and I very much like the home team in this matchup. The visiting Sacramento Kings have allowed an average of 122.8 points per game through a four-game slide (0-3-1 ATS) and the team is 3-8-1 ATS in its last 12 games following a straight up loss.

8* play on Miami Heat.

The Orlando Magic and the Charlotte Hornets are both among the lowest-scoring teams in the league and I have no doubt that this one will go under the total. Orlando has scored 95 points in back-to-back games while Charlotte was held to 86 in 1 loss at Denver last time out. Additionally, note that Orlando owns the best scoring defense in the NBA.

Under is 10-3-1 in Magic last 14 overall.

8* play on UNDER.

The Green Bay Packers took a 37-8 beating at San Francisco in Week 12, but if anything that was a wake-up call for the team. The Packers are undefeated SU and 4-2 ATS in their six games since, including a solid 28-23 win over Seattle in the Divisional Round.

I think this matchup will be a lot closer than the first meeting of the season. While the Niners are a formidable team and a well-deserved favorite, winning by more than a touchdown in the playoffs just ain't easy.

The Packers have a veteran QB in Aaron Rodgers who knows this might be his last chance to win another ring, so he'll be ready to do just about anything to win this game.

Packers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 playoff games. 49ers are 7-19-1 ATS in their last 27 games as a favorite and 0-4 ATS giving more than a touchdown this season.

10* play on Green Bay Packers.

The Kansas City Chiefs are coming off a wild 51-31 win over Houston in the divisional round, but I think we'll see a much lower-scoring game when they take on the Tennessee Titans in the AFC Championship Game.

Tennessee's two playoff games have seen just 33 and 40 points respectively, and we can note that the under is 5-2 in the Chiefs' last seven games.

The Titans will rely on running back Derrick Henry to move the ball, and while he's likely to have decent success, it will also drain the clock and keep the ball out of KC QB Patrick Mahomes' hands.

While the Chiefs are capable of explosive plays as seen in last week's shootout, note that the Titans have held their last two opponents to 12 and 13 points, despite facing the Pats and the Ravens!

10* play on UNDER.

Minnesota has dropped six of its last eight games, but it defeated Tampa Bay as a home underdog on Thursday and I like the price we got on the Wild when hosting Dallas on Saturday.

The Stars have lost two of their last three after taking a 4-1 loss as a -200 favorite against Buffalo last time out. The lone win during that stretch came in OT and they're 2-7 in their last 9 games as a road favorite and have lost five of the last seven meetings with the Wild at Xcel Energy Center. Minnesota is solid at home (12-5-4) and should be well up for this home game against a division rival.

8* play on Minnesota Wild.

Only three teams in the NBA have a lower pace factor than the Orlando Magic who average only 100.5 possessions per game while the Golden State Warriors are second to last for offensive efficiency. Last time out, Orlando was held to 95 points on 39 percent shooting from the field in a loss at LA Clippers while Golden State has been held to 104 points or fewer in seven of its last eight games, the lone exception a 134-131 OT loss to Denver on Thursday.

Under is 9-3 in Magic last 12 games as a road favorite. Under is 5-1 in Warriors last 6 games as an underdog and 9-2 in their last 11 games after scoring more than 125 points in their previous game. Under is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings.

10* play on UNDER.

The Vegas Golden Knights snapped a four-game losing streak with a 4-2 win at Pittsburgh on Thursday.

Here they'll face a Montreal team that has answered an eight-game skid by winning three of its last four while allowing a total of just six goals during that stretch.

Montreal has come out victorious in four of the last five head-to-head meetings with Vegas and I like the price we get on the Habs in this contest.

Free pick on Montreal Canadiens.

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The Dallas Mavericks have the best offensive efficiency score in the league at 114.4 points per 100 possessions and they're coming off a 127-123 win at Sacramento. Over is 7-2 in Mavericks last 9 games after scoring more than 125 points in their previous game and they'll face a Portland team that scored 117 points in a win at Houston last time out. Over is 7-3 in the last 10 head-to-head meetings and 14-6 in Mavericks last 20 home games vs. a team with a losing road record, which Portland is at 9-14 away from home.

8* play on OVER.

The Winnipeg Jets have dropped six of their last seven home at Bell MTS Place, but I absolutely love the price we get on the Jets when they host Tampa Bay Friday night.

Note that the Lightning will be playing on no rest (and third game in four nights) after taking a 3-2 loss at Minnesota on Thursday while the Jets have had two full days to recover from a 4-0 triumph over Vancouver.

The home team is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings and the underdog is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings.

10* play on Winnipeg Jets.