The set-up: This is a big game. For both teams. The Diamondbacks are desperate to avoid a sweep, while San Diego is desperate to post a sweep. These are two highly motivated clubs and I think it’s going to ultimately translate into offensive production at the end of the night. The visitors hand the ball to Merrill Kelly, while the home side counters with Eric Lauer.

The pitchers: Kelly (4-4, 4.21 ERA) is 1-0 vs. the Padres, but he’s given up seven runs off 13 hits spanning two starts and 11 frames to finish with a 5.73 ERA and 1.46 WHIP.

Lauer (2-4, 5.24) is 0-2 vs. the Diamondbacks already this year, getting shelled for seven runs off 17 hits with a 6.30 ERA and 1.80 WHIP.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Arizona has seen the total go over the number in 12 of 18 vs. the division already, while SD has seen the total fly over in seven of ten already this season following a win by one run. This number is low, play the over.

Padres/D-Backs over

8*

The set-up: Momentum. It can be an almost tangible factor in sports. Especially in the playoffs. Toronto looked decent over the first half of both Game’s 1 and 2 in the ECF’s in Milwaukee, but it would fade each time in the second. The Raptors though are now back in this series after their dramatic double OT Game 3 win and I believe they’re going to carry that “momentum” over into Game 4 for another victory.

The pick: Giannis when guarded by Kawhi in Game 3: 41 possessions, 4 PTS, 2-12 FG, 0-3 3PT, 1 AST, 2 TO. Note that the Raptors are 7-2 ATS in their last nine home games following an OT cover and SU victory in its previous outing. Grab the points.

Toronto Raptors

10* play

The set-up: The Royals hit the interstate for a three hour drive for a two-game interleague series. The visitors hand the ball to the volatile Homer Bailey, while the home side counters with Michael Wacha. Both clubs come in focused and hungry though, as each has lost five straight series.

The pitchers: Bailey (4-4, 5.36 ERA) was chased after four innings of work in his last start. Note that he’s 6-16 with a 5.56 ERA in 27 starts against the Cards.

Wacha (3-1, 4.93) has not pitched more than six innings in any start this year and he owns a poor 1.64 WHIP thus far. He also only has 26 K’s over 42 innings of work.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but KC has seen the total go over in seven of 11 already this year as a +150 underdog or higher, while St. Louis has seen the total go over in six of nine already following a loss by two runs or less.

Kansas City Royals/St Louis Cards OVER

10* play

The set-up: The Sharks are on the brink of elimination and in a game which I think is going to be decided late or even in extra time, I have no issues at all in laying the steeper price for the extra 1.5 goals. San Jose has only one goal over its last two games, but overall the Sharks come in averaging 3.67 goals this year. Jordan Binnington has been exceptional in net for St. Louis, but one has to wonder when the rookie will have a letdown? I have a hard time seeing this talented Sharks offense being held down for a third straight game and in this elimination scenario.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but San Jose is 8-2 (+5.2 units) this year after scoring one goals or less i its previous contest, while St. Louis is only 4-5 (-1.7 units) this season after shutting out its opponent in its previous game.

San Jose Sharks (+1.5)

5* play

The set-up: The Padres have lost six of their last seven, so clearly they won’t be lacking motivation/focus tonight. Arizona is 25-22 and the Padres are 23-24, but the Friars have already take four of seven in the season series. As good as Luke Weaver has been for Arizona of late, I think that the Padres’ rookie phenom Chris Paddack is the correct call in this case.

The pitchers: Weaver (3-2, 3.16 ERA). Paddack is 3-2 with a 3.91 ERA.

The pick: The Padres though are 6-2 in Paddack’s start this year and I look for that trend of success to continue again on Monday. Note as well that Arizona is just 7-10 vs. the division this season, while San Diego is 11-6 (+7 units) after scoring four runs or less in six straight games. Great price, play on the home side.

San Diego Padres

10* play

The set-up: This is a bad matchup for the Blazers. While the teams split four regular season meetings, Portland has had difficulties with Golden State’s “smaller” or “shooting” line-up, with Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson being the featured pieces in the offense, instead of Kevin Durant. Perhaps Portland would have done better with Durant in the lineup? We’ll never know, but for whatever reason this particular line-up has given the Blazers difficulties in the postseason and I don’t think anything changing for Game 4. Portland had it’s best opportunity to get back into this series in Game 3, but once again it came up short in trying to defend Curry and company. I’ve also been thoroughly impressed with the Warriors’ defense to this point. Portland’s on the ropes and I look for the defending champs to put the final nail in the coffin.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Golden State is 4-1 ATS in its last five when leading 3-0 in a playoff series, while Portland is just 4-7 ATS this year off an upset loss as a favorite. I like Golden State on the MONEY-LINE in Game 4.

GSW

10* play

The set-up: The Indians benefit from playing at home. They also come in off a 10-0 blowout over the Orioles on Sunday. Slugger Jason Kipnis is riding a 14-game on-base streak heading into this series and ace Carlos Carrasco has started to resemble his normal dominant form, coming into this one having thrown 12 straight scoreless frames of work. I think it’ll be too much for Brett Anderson and the A’s to overcome on Monday night.

The pitchers: Anderson (4-3, 4.41 ERA) is just 1-3 in over his last five outings, most recently getting shelled for four runs off six hits (including three homers) vs. Seattle on Tuesday.

Carrasco (4-3, 4.18) gave up two hits over five frames in a 5-0 win over the White on May 9th, before allowing six hits over seven innings in a 9-0 win over Chicago.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Oakland is 0-6 this year as a road dog in the +125 to +175 ranges, while Cleveland is 14-8 as a home favorite. All things considered, I believe this line could/should in fact be much larger. Lay the price.

Cleveland Indians

8* play

The set-up: Toronto has looked competitive in both games up until the fourth quarter in the Eastern Conference Finals, but the Bucks have pulled away each time for the cover. In an essentially “do or die” scenario, I’m expecting Toronto to battle tough here and to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. So far Milwaukee has rolled through its competition, but I believe the shift in venue North of the border finally leads to a letdown here from the Deer. The Raptors were better at home than on the road all season and if not now, when?

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Toronto is 7-2 ATS in its last nine revenging a road loss vs. an opponent of ten points or more, while Milwaukee is just 3-9 ATS in its last 12 road games following a home win by ten points or more. I’m laying the price and taking the home side on the money line here.

Toronto Raptors (Moneyline)

10* play

The set-up: The Sharks were average on the road this year, but great at home. St. Louis had its hands full in Game 4 though, but it would hold on for a 2-1 win in front of the home town crowd. Note that St. Louis is 27-22 on the road, averaging 2.80 goals and conceding 2.45 in those contest. The Sharks are 32-19 at home though. averaging 3.67 goals and allowing 2.86 in those games. I do indeed think that “home ice” will be the difference for the Sharks this evening.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but San Jose is 6-1 in its last seven playoff games as a favorite in the -110 to -150 range, while St. Louis is still only 7-16 in its last 23 playoff games as an underdog in the +110 to +150 range. All things considered, a great price in my opinion.

San Jose Sharks

10* play

The set-up: I think the home side bounces back here after yesterday’s loss with their ever improving “ace” on the hill. The visitors hand the ball to Wade Miley, while the Red Sox go with Chris Sale.

The pitchers: Miley (4-2, 3.51 ERA) most recently allowed four runs off seven hits with two walks over six innings in a win over the Tigers on May 14th. Unfortunately a date vs. the Red Sox is not what the doctor ordered to get back on track, as note that he’s just 2-2 with a 7.13 ERA in four career outings vs. them.

Sale (1-5, 4.24) has returned to his dominant form in May, going 1-0 with a 1.29 ERA over three outings, posting 41 K’s and a single walk spanning 21 innings of work. Sale has to be feeling confident here as well as he’s 5-2 with a 1.83 ERA in seven career starts vs. the Astros.

The pick: Sale’s agonizingly slow start to the season continues to drive the southpaws price down right now. Great value on the surging Sale. Lay the price.

Boston Red Sox

10* play