3 Super Bowl Prop Bet Picks from Kyle Hunter

League: NFL
By: Kyle Hunter Published on: 02/01/2015

1. Tom Brady longest completion under 37.5 yards

In his Super Bowl career, Tom Brady has 127 completions. Exactly one of them has gone for more than 37.5 yards. Only two of them have gone for more than 30 yards. It’s highly unlikely that Brady is able to pick up chunk yardage against the Seahawks defense, which is arguably the top tackling defense in the NFL.

The Patriots throw a lot of quick passes and out routes. Those rarely lead to big gains without a missed tackle and the Seahawks only allowed 96 yards per game after the catch. The Seahawks allowed 32 passing plays of 20 yards or more all season long out of 313 completions. That’s 10.2 percent of the time that the Seahawks allowed 20 or more yards. The longest pass that they allowed went for just 47 yards. This one should come in comfortably.

2. Ryan Allen and Jon Ryan longest punt over 52.5 yards

For this prop, we look at Drew Butler, the Arizona Cardinals punter. Butler averaged 4.4 yards more per punt at home than he did on the road. Jon Ryan rates poorly in the net yards stats because he didn’t have to boom many punts with an offense that was able to get out of the shadow of its own goalposts more often than not. Both of these teams excelled at making the opponent drive the length of the field. The Patriots had the best opposing starting field position and the Seahawks were fourth. Both of these guys should be able to blast some punts in the controlled environment.

3. Jamie Collins over 8.5 Tackles/Assists

Jamie Collins is one of the most underrated defenders in the NFL. He's also an integral part of the Patriots run defense. I have little doubt that Seattle will work hard to establish the running game here. Russell Wilson and Marshawn Lynch will both be running frequently in this game, and that gives Collins a bunch of chances to rack up stops.