Winning in the Preseason
Winning in the Preseason
By the 'A' Play's Chip Chirimbes
10 Key Factors for turning a Profit betting NFL Preseason football.
I have to laugh at those who believe the NFL Preseason is a dangerous time to bet because you don’t get the ‘regulars’ playing full time. Nothing can be future from the truth it is one of the BEST times to be making wagers. Teams, the coaches, the media and the players are all telling ‘us’ what's going to happen. They tell us who will play and for how long, they tell us who is fighting for a competitive spot and what jobs are safe. Take this important formation and use it correctly.
Let us start with ‘New' Coaches- This is one of my favorite keys when evaluating who is and who is not motivated comes from the coaches. New coaches for the most part are looking to impress their new employer and get the 'faithful' behind him. Positive media coverage will help sell tickets and create a great work environment or at least until the roof falls in. This trend is made even stronger if their pre-season opener is at home. But, all is not always what it seems, when retread coaches are called upon to coach veteran playoff caliber teams. More often then not they let nature take its course as the veterans establish their pace. They are not looking to shake the apple cart and lets the team keep it’s personality. These coaches let the pace be dictated by the veterans and they will come together later if the season.
Veteran Coaches- The advantage here is that veteran coaches have a history and you have to do your homework. Some coaches are so well prepared early because they always want to start the season on a positive note and you can study the NFL Pre-season logs which coaches play for the opening gun. Likewise, there are a number of coaches that are only concerned with being healthy and cutting down to their final rooster. They will play players knowing they will not make the club just to cut them after they’ve used them up. You have to be careful with veteran coaches with established offenses that will play ‘vanilla’ and not show anything they would use during the regular season. Listen to these guys before the games and you can see who is serious and who is just going their the monitions.
Quarterback Competition- When teams have big competition at the quarterback spot it is a receipt for wins and points in the preseason. The rationale here is that when you have at least two players fighting to win a spot and it is even better when you have three or more players fighting for spots. They all will try an establish themselves as the ‘one.' There will be little drop off in production and if one falls short, its on to the next. Although I am not a huge ‘totals’ player when in this situation presents itself this option usually gives us two chances to win. Coaches on ‘Hot' Seat- These guys have to win and win now. It always seems that any coach from New York in on the hot seat but Tom Coughing is with the New York Giants as long as he wants but Rex Ryan of the New York Jets may not be so secure and might see things differently. The Jets are expected to win because of all the hype presented by the by the media with additions of Chris Johnson and others but if they don’t beat the Patriots this could be the end of the Ryan run in New York. Often the ‘hot’ seat pressure is too much to overcome as his overall lack of coaching talent becomes apparent. Hostile home crowd and TV media pressure along with the press can create urgency for a team that is expected to win or contend and just doesn't have the talent.
Playoff Teams- These clubs most often are just looking to stay healthy and get into shape. They have established quarterbacks and really only look to put out a strong effort in their third preseason game. In game 4 they will be resting their starters like most others but 'game 3' is where they look to put it together. If one of these playoff clubs has an extremely poor performance first time out they are are ’strong’ play for the first half their next time out. Championship caliber teams like to establish good habits …like winning. Hold Outs- I don't think holdouts have much effect on a team unless its the starting quarterback who is you star then you might have troubles. Remember, anyone of these backups and have a career, check out Kurt Warner, Tom Bradley etc...
The ‘Line’ & Your Outs- This of course is the first of all ‘key’ factors when determining the strength of your ’side.' I always look for a ’number’ that seems out-of-whack and then I try and figure out why. Sometimes the lines makers are just begging you to win if you know what to look for. Knowing the reason a line moves is as important as it is to getting the best price on your wager because it is so paramount to winning. I’m going to mention two very important factors and one is to make sure that you are going to get paid when you win and that you have a solid ‘line.’ But you should have at least three different ‘out’ (places to bet) to catch every edge possible. This is money we are talking about, this is more then recreation. Give yourself every chance to win.
Smart $$$ Moves- Being aware of what the ‘Wise Guys' and ‘Money Movers' are doing as it can be very helpful if not critical. This is the most difficult information of all to obtain because it usually comes late, (except for the hits on the opening number which is aware to all) this type of information is spoken only among those 'in-the-know.' Being sure of what you are being told is the tough part. Understanding of the 'industry' (not the football industry) the sports gambling industry is vital here. The line can change in an instant and the reason at times can be very deceiving. There was a time when we ‘knew’ where the public money was and where the wise guy money was. Now, since the invasion of off shore sports books there are so many more factors that surround the money moving lines. For the most part this is too late and for the most part ignore it.
I know that most of you don't have the time to put this together everyday because I do it and it is a 24/7 job of gathering information. Then we try and determine what it means. That's, where I come in. I have been doing this over 30 years and my sources and contacts have been together sharing information for a lifetime. You can't do it alone!
Chip Chirimbes is posting winnings daily at Picks & Parlays